Sport Picks

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Tusker vs KCB

Kenya Kenya

FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Sat, May 16, 2026
1 - 0
10:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
(Penalty)
3' Event
(Penalty)
3' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Tusker
15%
Draws
32%
KCB
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tusker lately — more wins on the board than KCB.
  • Tusker are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Tusker have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor KCB, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
KCB Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker KCB
Matches Played 26 25
Wins 13 9
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.84 0.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Tusker vs KCB
1:0
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
KCB vs Tusker
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs KCB
0:2
Feb 2, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs KCB
0:0
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
KCB vs Tusker
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 59 / 100
KCB 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker KCB

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Defensive concern: KCB conceded in 72% of 25 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Tusker remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS KCB
1.25 Goals Scored 0.29
1 Goals Conceded 0.43
75% Over 1.5 29%
38% Over 2.5 14%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

KCB

(Away)
14 Jun
KCB
0 : 2
Bandari
31 May
Shabana
1 : 2
KCB
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
23 May
KCB
0 : 1
Posta Rangers
16 May
Tusker
1 : 0
KCB
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Kakamega Homeboyz 0
Ulinzi Stars 1
Tusker 1
Kariobangi Sharks 0
Posta Rangers 0
Nairobi United 2
KCB 3
Chebaiywa Lions 0
KUTA Collection 0
Shabana 1
Police FC 1
BB Bread 0
3K FC 0
Bandari 2
Mfalme 5
Muranga 1
Quarter-finals
Ulinzi Stars 1
Tusker 2
Nairobi United 0
KCB 1
Shabana 0
Police FC 1
Bandari 5
Mfalme 2
Semi-finals
Tusker 1
KCB 0
Police FC 1
Bandari 0
Final
Tusker 2
Police FC 1
KCB 0
Bandari 2