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UD Poblense vs Castellonense

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
de Pedro D.
45' Event
Prada R.
72'
Murcia R.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 3 game between UD Poblense and Castellonense finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castellonense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
UD Poblense
15%
Draws
68%
Castellonense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castellonense come out ahead of UD Poblense on wins alone.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on Castellonense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
UD Poblense Clean Sheet 17%
Castellonense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Poblense Castellonense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 18
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.04 1.52
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 3
UD Poblense vs Castellonense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Poblense Compare

Top Goalscorer Prada R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Castellonense Compare

Top Goalscorer de Pedro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garijo I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Poblense 20 / 100
Castellonense 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Poblense Castellonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellonense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Poblense's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Castellonense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: UD Poblense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Poblense VS Castellonense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Poblense

(Home)
20 Sept
Alcoyano
2 : 0
UD Poblense
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
06 Sept
La Nucia
1 : 0
UD Poblense
14 Aug
UD Poblense
1 : 0
Baleares
31 May
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Aguilas FC
Page 1 of 6

Castellonense

(Away)
19 Sept
Castellonense
1 : 0
Ciudad Cieza
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
19 Aug
Torrent
0 : 1
Castellonense
09 May
Castellonense
0 : 1
Atzeneta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Nucia 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Castellonense 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
3 Orihuela 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
4 UCAM Murcia 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
5 Castellon B 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
6 CF Intercity 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
8 Mallorca B 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
9 Yeclano 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
10 Ciudad Cieza 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
11 Ilicitano 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
12 Alcoyano 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
13 Lorca Deportiva 3 0 2 1 1:2 2
14 Valencia B 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
15 Pena Deportiva 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
16 Baleares 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
17 UD Poblense 3 0 0 3 1:5 0
18 Real Murcia B 3 0 0 3 2:8 0
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)