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Uganda vs Burundi

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uganda play Burundi in the African Nations Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uganda averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Burundi averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Uganda won 5, Burundi won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Dec 29, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Uganda and 1.38 for Burundi. This points to a Uganda double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Uganda
15%
Draws
30%
Burundi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Uganda picked up more points recently compared to Burundi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Uganda Clean Sheet 17%
Burundi Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Burundi
Matches Played 24 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 3 4
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.21 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 29, 2024 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
1:0
Dec 26, 2024 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:1
Dec 7, 2019 CECAFA Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
2:1
Oct 19, 2019 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
3:0
Sep 21, 2019 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiwanuka H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Burundi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 53 / 100
Burundi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Burundi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Uganda & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uganda attacking → ← attacking Burundi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda scored in 75% of their last 24 games.

Burundi let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Uganda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Burundi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 31
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25