Sport Picks
Match Events
90'
90'
Kiwanuka H.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Uganda carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Uganda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Uganda, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Uganda have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.4%
Uganda Clean Sheet 19%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Uganda | Burundi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 22 | 26 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.36 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 29, 2024 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
1:0
Dec 26, 2024 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:1
Dec 7, 2019 CECAFA Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
2:1
Oct 19, 2019 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
3:0
Sep 21, 2019 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Uganda Compare
Top Goalscorer Kiwanuka H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Burundi Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Uganda 36 / 100
Burundi 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Uganda Burundi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Burundi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Uganda found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (22 games).
Burundi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 26 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Difficult form: Burundi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Uganda VS Burundi
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Uganda
(Home) 30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3 Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1 Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1 Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0 Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1 Chad
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30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3 Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1 Tanzania
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1 Chad
08 Sept
Uganda
2 : 0 Somalia
05 Sept
Uganda
4 : 0 Mozambique
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Burundi
(Away) 26 May
Morocco
5 : 0 Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0 Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4 Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0 Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1 Kenya
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26 May
Morocco
5 : 0 Burundi
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4 Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0 Burundi
09 Sept
Gambia
2 : 0 Burundi
05 Sept
Ivory Coast
1 : 0 Burundi
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
Semi-finals
Sierra Leone 2
Liberia 3
TBD -
Senegal -
Mauritania -
TBD -
TBD -
Mali -
Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Guinea Bissau -
Togo 3
Benin 1
TBD -
Niger -
Ivory Coast -
TBD -
TBD -
Burkina Faso -
Ghana -
TBD -
TBD -
Nigeria -
Equatorial Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Congo -
Central Africa -
TBD -
TBD -
Cameroon -
Chad -
TBD -
TBD -
D.R. Congo -
Burundi 6
Somalia 0
TBD -
Uganda -
Ethiopia 6
Eritrea 0
Sudan 2
Tanzania 1
South Sudan 3
Kenya 1
Djibouti 1
Rwanda 3
Zimbabwe 0
Eswatini 4
TBD -
Madagascar -
Lesotho 2
Namibia 1
TBD -
Angola -
Mozambique -
TBD -
TBD -
Zambia -
Final
Liberia 1
Senegal 4
Mauritania 1
Mali 0
Guinea 6
Guinea Bissau 2
Togo 1
Niger 1
Ivory Coast 2
Burkina Faso 3
Ghana 1
Nigeria 3
Equatorial Guinea 1
Congo 2
Central Africa 2
Cameroon 2
Chad 2
D.R. Congo 4
Burundi 0
Uganda 2
Ethiopia 1
Sudan 4
South Sudan 4
Rwanda 4
Eswatini 1
Madagascar 2
Lesotho 1
Angola 2
Mozambique 0
Zambia 6
