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Umea FC vs Gefle

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Umea Energi Arena, Umea
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Olawore E.
17'
Hakansson N.
27'
Javette C.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 - Norra game between Umea FC and Gefle finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Umea FC
17%
Draws
13%
Gefle
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Umea FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Umea FC's 1.88 goals per match outpaces what Gefle have produced (0.63).
  • Model gives Umea FC a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Umea FC Clean Sheet 20%
Gefle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umea FC Gefle
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
2:2
Oct 22, 2022 Division 1 - Norra
Gefle vs Umea FC
1:0
Apr 23, 2022 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
0:1
Oct 16, 2021 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
2:1
May 1, 2021 Division 1 - Norra
Gefle vs Umea FC
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Umea FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Olawore E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hadad R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Gefle Compare

Top Goalscorer Hansemon T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umea FC 67 / 100
Gefle 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umea FC Gefle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UME Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Umea FC scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Gefle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Umea FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Umea FC VS Gefle
1.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Umea FC

(Home)
28 Jun
Umea FC
1 : 3
FC Jarfalla
21 Jun
Enkopings SK
3 : 1
Umea FC
12 Jun
Umea FC
2 : 0
Pitea
07 Jun
Sollentuna
1 : 1
Umea FC
31 May
Umea FC
2 : 2
IFK Stocksund
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Gefle

(Away)
27 Jun
Gefle
2 : 1
IFK Stocksund
18 Jun
Gefle
0 : 2
FC Stockholm Internazionale
13 Jun
Karlstad
2 : 0
Gefle
10 Jun
Falu BS
1 : 0
Gefle
06 Jun
Gefle
0 : 4
Hammarby TFF
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hammarby TFF14102238:1132
2Karlstad1493222:930
3FC Arlanda1485123:1029
4FC Stockholm Internazionale1483328:1427
5Enkopings SK1481524:2325
6FBK Karlstad1473423:2024
7AFC Eskilstuna1454523:2419
8Karlbergs1453623:2318
9Umea FC1444620:2416
10FC Jarfalla1443721:2715
11Vasalund1443720:3015
12Assyriska FF1435622:2914
13Gefle1442817:2914
14Sollentuna1427512:1913
15Pitea1423916:329
16IFK Stocksund1415828:368
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)