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Uniao Central vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
de Conceicao Alves J. P.
26' Event
Batista Martins G.
34' Event

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Carioca C 2025 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Uniao Central
30%
Draws
34%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uniao Central

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uniao Central lately — more wins on the board than Paraty.
  • Model gives Uniao Central a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Uniao Central have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paraty, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Uniao Central Clean Sheet 15%
Paraty Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Central Paraty
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Uniao Central
0:0
Aug 24, 2025 Carioca C
Uniao Central vs Paraty
2:2
Jul 23, 2025 Carioca C
Uniao Central vs Paraty
0:4
Jul 1, 2024 Carioca C
Uniao Central vs Paraty
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Central Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Paraty Compare

Top Goalscorer de Conceicao Alves J. P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Batista Martins G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Central 35 / 100
Paraty 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Central Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Uniao Central scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Paraty has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Uniao Central stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Central VS Paraty
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Central

(Home)
12 Jul
Uniao Central
3 : 1
Caac Brazil
06 Jul
Caac Brazil
2 : 2
Uniao Central
03 Jul
Uniao Central
1 : 0
Campos AA
28 Jun
Tigres Brasil
4 : 0
Uniao Central
07 Jun
Uniao Central
3 : 2
EC Vera Cruz
Page 1 of 7

Paraty

(Away)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Paraty2
Uniao Central2
Santa Cruz RJ9
Riostrense3
Final
Paraty3
Santa Cruz RJ2