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Uniao Da Serra vs GD Peniche

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Nabais I.
70' Event
Justino G. T. F.
Own Goal
90' Event
Pereira M.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Uniao Da Serra and GD Peniche finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Uniao Da Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Uniao Da Serra
20%
Draws
17%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uniao Da Serra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Uniao Da Serra carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Uniao Da Serra a 63% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Uniao Da Serra Clean Sheet 68%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Da Serra GD Peniche
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.53 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.91 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs GD Peniche
3:1
Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Uniao Da Serra
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Da Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabais I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pereira M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.47
Avg xA / game 0.95

GD Peniche Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Da Serra 95 / 100
GD Peniche 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Da Serra GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uniao Da Serra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Uniao Da Serra went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Uniao Da Serra found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: GD Peniche conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Da Serra VS GD Peniche
1.38 Goals Scored 1.86
1 Goals Conceded 2.43
63% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Da Serra

(Home)
20 Sept
Amora
3 : 4
Uniao Da Serra
13 Sept
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 1
Mortagua FC
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
5 : 0
Uniao de Pombal
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
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GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)