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UP Country Lions vs Red Star Prediction & H2H Stats

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka

Super League
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Yahya A.
21' Event
Aakib M.
45' Event
Ishan M.

AI Match Summary

UP Country Lions in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UP Country Lions.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
UP Country Lions
20%
Draws
34%
Red Star
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UP Country Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UP Country Lions lately — more wins on the board than Red Star.
  • Win probability leans UP Country Lions's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and UP Country Lions have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
UP Country Lions Clean Sheet 20%
Red Star Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UP Country Lions Red Star
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 20 12
Draws 1 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.43 1.97
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Red Star
4:0
Jan 10, 2022 Super League
Red Star vs UP Country Lions
0:3
Jan 5, 2019 Super League
Red Star vs UP Country Lions
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UP Country Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Yahya A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aakib M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Red Star Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UP Country Lions 85 / 100
Red Star 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UP Country Lions Red Star

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UP Country Lions Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UP Country Lions scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

UP Country Lions went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Red Star let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

UP Country Lions VS Red Star
4.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UP Country Lions

(Home)
13 Sept
Renown
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
08 Sept
Colombo
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
28 Aug
UP Country Lions
4 : 0
Blue Eagles
22 Aug
UP Country Lions
6 : 0
New Young's SC
16 Aug
Ratnam SC
1 : 5
UP Country Lions
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Red Star

(Away)
12 Sept
Red Star
2 : 2
Colombo
06 Sept
Ratnam SC
0 : 3
Red Star
30 Aug
Red Star
5 : 1
Defenders FC
24 Aug
Red Star
1 : 0
Blue Eagles
15 Aug
Renown
0 : 0
Red Star
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