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Urawa Reds vs Okayama

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Saitama Stadium, Saitama
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Omori H.
Assist: Kamiya Yuta
54'
Sub
Ichimi K. In: Gaucho L.
Out: Ichimi K.
54'
Sub
Kamiya Yuta In: Matsumoto M.
Out: Kamiya Yuta

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Okayama advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Urawa Reds
15%
Draws
36%
Okayama
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Urawa Reds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Okayama carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Urawa Reds taking it.
  • Okayama arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Okayama, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Urawa Reds Clean Sheet 68%
Okayama Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Urawa Reds Okayama
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 2 2
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.66 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Okayama
1:2
Jun 6, 2026 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Okayama
0:2
May 31, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Urawa Reds
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 J1 League
Okayama vs Urawa Reds
0:1
Mar 8, 2025 J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Okayama
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Urawa Reds Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Omori H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kawano K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Urawa Reds 59 / 100
Okayama 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Urawa Reds Okayama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Urawa Reds Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Urawa Reds scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Okayama let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Urawa Reds went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Urawa Reds VS Okayama
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Urawa Reds

(Home)
19 Sept
Urawa Reds
3 : 1
Verdy
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Kashima Antlers
0 : 1
Urawa Reds
02 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
29 Aug
Urawa Reds
3 : 2
Yokohama F. Marinos
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Okayama

(Away)
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
29 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 1
Okayama
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

3rd place
Cerezo Osaka 5
FC Tokyo 3
Nagoya Grampus 3
Machida Zelvia 4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Gamba Osaka 5
Verdy 3
Okayama 3
Urawa Reds 1
Shimizu S-Pulse 1
Yokohama F. Marinos 4
Kyoto 3
Kashiwa Reysol 6
V-Varen Nagasaki 2
Mito 0
Avispa Fukuoka 4
Chiba 3