Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 game between Urgatzi and Balmaseda finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Balmaseda.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
20%
80%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Balmaseda
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Balmaseda carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Balmaseda's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Urgatzi Clean Sheet 10%
Balmaseda Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Urgatzi | Balmaseda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 12 |
| Losses | 25 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.53 | 1.16 |
| Goals Conceded | 3.03 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 27, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urgatzi vs Balmaseda
1:3
Oct 17, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Urgatzi
6:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Urgatzi 10 / 100
Balmaseda 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Urgatzi Balmaseda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Balmaseda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
Defensive concern: Balmaseda conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.
Urgatzi scored in 47% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Urgatzi VS Balmaseda
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
3.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Urgatzi
(Home) 12 Jun
SCD Durango
1 : 0 Urgatzi
05 Jun
Urgatzi
1 : 2 Sodupe
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1 Urgatzi
23 May
Urgatzi
0 : 2 Lagun Onak
15 May
Santurtzi
4 : 1 Urgatzi
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05 Jun
Urgatzi
1 : 2 Sodupe
23 May
Urgatzi
0 : 2 Lagun Onak
08 May
Urgatzi
1 : 4 SCD Durango
24 Apr
Urgatzi
1 : 1 CD Ariznabarra
11 Apr
Urgatzi
0 : 3 Santurtzi
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Balmaseda
(Away) 12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3 Balmaseda
05 Jun
Balmaseda
2 : 0 Lagun Onak
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2 Balmaseda
23 May
Balmaseda
0 : 0 SCD Durango
19 May
Balmaseda
2 : 2 Santurtzi
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12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3 Balmaseda
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2 Balmaseda
15 May
Sodupe
3 : 0 Balmaseda
01 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 1 Balmaseda
17 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1 Balmaseda
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika Club | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 39:16 | 43 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad C | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 48:27 | 40 |
| 3 | Sestao | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 40:13 | 39 |
| 4 | SD Deusto | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 30:24 | 36 |
| 5 | Santutxu FC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 20:23 | 29 |
| 6 | Beasain | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 20:14 | 27 |
| 7 | Tolosa | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21:26 | 24 |
| 8 | Aurrera Ondarroa | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23:31 | 20 |
| 9 | Balmaseda | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 22:27 | 18 |
| 10 | Somorrostro | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20:31 | 17 |
| 11 | Urgatzi | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11:62 | 10 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vitoria | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 20:4 | 35 |
| 2 | Urduliz FT | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 28:18 | 35 |
| 3 | Pasaia | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22:14 | 34 |
| 4 | Basconia | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 24:15 | 30 |
| 5 | Anaitasuna FT | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 20:19 | 30 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 19:19 | 29 |
| 7 | Santurtzi | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18:27 | 23 |
| 8 | SCD Durango | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 10 | CD Ariznabarra | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12:28 | 16 |
| 11 | Lagun Onak | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17:31 | 15 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
