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Ursaria vs Illescas

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Alcalde J.
44'
Alcalde J.
90' Event
Canizares A.

AI Match Summary

Illescas in this Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Illescas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ursaria
30%
Draws
35%
Illescas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ursaria have won more games recently than Illescas.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%
Illescas Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursaria Illescas
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 6
Draws 5 12
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 0.97 0.48
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Illescas vs Ursaria
1:2
Dec 3, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs Illescas
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ursaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Illescas Compare

Top Goalscorer Canizares A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursaria 41 / 100
Illescas 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursaria Illescas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ursaria scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Illescas conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Ursaria stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Illescas
0 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursaria

(Home)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

Illescas

(Away)
13 Sept
Illescas
0 : 0
Socuellamos
05 Sept
CD Tarancon
0 : 1
Illescas
29 Aug
Illescas
0 : 1
Pozuelo de Alarcon
18 Aug
Illescas
1 : 1
San Sebastian Reyes B
14 Aug
Illescas
1 : 1
CF Talavera
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)