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Ursaria vs Real Aranjuez

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Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2022/2023
Ursaria Logo

Ursaria

5 - 1
FT
Real Aranjuez Logo

Real Aranjuez

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2022/2023 game between Ursaria and Real Aranjuez finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Ursaria
15%
Draws
0%
Real Aranjuez
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ursaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ursaria come out ahead of Real Aranjuez on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Ursaria taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%
Real Aranjuez Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursaria Real Aranjuez
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 13 3
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 22
Goals Scored 1.16 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.16 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.55 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Ursaria vs Real Aranjuez
5:1
Oct 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Real Aranjuez vs Ursaria
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursaria 95 / 100
Real Aranjuez 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursaria Real Aranjuez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Real Aranjuez's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ursaria scored in 63% of their last 32 outings.

Real Aranjuez has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ursaria VS Real Aranjuez
0.5 Goals Scored 0.6
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.6
50% Over 1.5 60%
25% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursaria

(Home)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
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Real Aranjuez

(Away)
12 Sept
Real Aranjuez
2 : 5
Galapagar
06 Sept
Leganes B
2 : 0
Real Aranjuez
02 Sept
Real Aranjuez
1 : 6
Alaves C
23 Apr
CDE Madrid
1 : 0
Real Aranjuez
16 Apr
Real Aranjuez
0 : 3
RSC Internacional
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ursaria 30 20 8 2 62:22 68
2 RSC Internacional 30 21 4 5 73:27 67
3 Getafe B 30 15 9 6 49:24 54
4 Paracuellos Antamira 30 14 6 10 48:40 48
5 CD Mostoles 30 14 5 11 38:32 47
6 RSD Alcala 30 12 10 8 31:28 46
7 CD Las Rozas 30 13 6 11 37:38 45
8 Trival Valderas 30 11 4 15 38:44 37
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 30 9 10 11 37:47 37
10 AD Torrejon 30 9 8 13 31:42 35
11 Galapagar 30 10 5 15 38:44 35
12 Collado Villalba 30 9 7 14 30:45 34
13 Canillas 30 9 7 14 34:46 34
14 Rayo Vallecano B 30 9 6 15 42:45 33
15 CDE Madrid 30 9 5 16 31:52 32
16 Real Aranjuez 30 4 4 22 21:64 16
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2022/2023 (Play Offs)