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USA vs Australia

World World

Friendly International 2025 Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, CO
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Bos J.
26'
Geria J.
30'
Sub
Pulisic C. In: Luna D.
Out: Pulisic C.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between USA and Australia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
USA
20%
Draws
29%
Australia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and USA come out ahead of Australia on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors USA here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
USA Clean Sheet 68%
Australia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Australia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 15
Draws 1 6
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.96 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.54 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 World Championship
USA vs Australia
2:0
Oct 15, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Australia
2:1
Jun 5, 2010 Friendly International
USA vs Australia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Wright H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Bos J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 41 / 100
Australia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Australia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

USA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Australia has conceded goals in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Australia
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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Australia

(Away)
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0
Turkey
06 Jun
Switzerland
1 : 1
Australia
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