Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA W vs Japan W Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International Women Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Hamano M.
Assist: Hijikata M.
37'
Moriya M.
46'
Sub
Moriya M. In: Kitagawa H.
Out: Moriya M.

AI Match Summary

Japan W in this Friendly International Women matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
USA W
15%
Draws
53%
Japan W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to USA W lately — more wins on the board than Japan W.
  • Japan W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
USA W Clean Sheet 12%
Japan W Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA W Japan W
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 22 20
Draws 1 4
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.43 2.94
Goals Conceded 0.46 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.72
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
3:0
Apr 15, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
0:1
Apr 11, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
2:1
Feb 27, 2025 SheBelieves Cup Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:2
Aug 3, 2024 Olympic Games Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamano M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.56
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA W 10 / 100
Japan W 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA W Japan W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA W found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

USA W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Japan W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 45% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

USA W VS Japan W
1.14 Goals Scored 2.88
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.75
43% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USA W

(Home)
10 Jun
Brazil W
0 : 1
USA W
06 Jun
Brazil W
2 : 1
USA W
18 Apr
USA W
3 : 0
Japan W
15 Apr
USA W
0 : 1
Japan W
11 Apr
USA W
2 : 1
Japan W
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Japan W

(Away)
02 Oct
North Korea W
2 : 3
Japan W
29 Sept
Japan W
2 : 0
South Korea W
25 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Philippines W
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
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