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USD Casatese vs Castellanzese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ferrante F.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
USD Casatese
6%
Draws
4%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: USD Casatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • USD Casatese have won more games recently than Castellanzese.
  • USD Casatese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 68%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Castellanzese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 10 8
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs USD Casatese
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs USD Casatese
1:0
Jan 31, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrante F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 95 / 100
Castellanzese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USD Casatese scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Castellanzese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

USD Casatese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Castellanzese
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
USD Casatese
4 : 0
AC Leon
03 May
USD Casatese
1 : 0
AC Leon
26 Apr
Scanzorosciate
0 : 3
USD Casatese
19 Apr
USD Casatese
1 : 0
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

Castellanzese

(Away)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Castellanzese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0
AC Leon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)