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USD Casatese vs Castellanzese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ferrante F.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
USD Casatese
20%
Draws
40%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • USD Casatese have won more games recently than Castellanzese.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 68%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Castellanzese
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.43 0.96
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs USD Casatese
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs USD Casatese
1:0
Jan 31, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Castellanzese
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrante F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 41 / 100
Castellanzese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Casatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USD Casatese scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Castellanzese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Difficult form: Castellanzese registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Castellanzese
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
Page 1 of 6

Castellanzese

(Away)
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1
Castellanzese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)