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USD Casatese vs Oltrepo

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Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Franceschinis G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between USD Casatese and Oltrepo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oltrepo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
USD Casatese
15%
Draws
48%
Oltrepo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oltrepo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and USD Casatese come out ahead of Oltrepo on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans USD Casatese's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 68%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Oltrepo
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Oltrepo
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs USD Casatese
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Oltrepo Compare

Top Goalscorer Franceschinis G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 50 / 100
Oltrepo 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Oltrepo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Casatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: USD Casatese scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Oltrepo conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: USD Casatese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Oltrepo
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
20 Sept
Correggese
1 : 3
USD Casatese
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
Page 1 of 6

Oltrepo

(Away)
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
06 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 1
Oltrepo
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
26 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 3
Oltrepo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)