Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USM Alger vs Saoura

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade du 5 Juillet 1962, Algiers
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Bentaleb O.
20'
Sub
Sikiru A. In: Bedi G.
Out: Sikiru A.
36'
Merili I.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between USM Alger and Saoura finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Saoura.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
USM Alger
35%
Draws
23%
Saoura
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: USM Alger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Saoura carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives USM Alger a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
USM Alger Clean Sheet 68%
Saoura Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USM Alger Saoura
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 13 17
Draws 14 6
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.17 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Algeria Cup
USM Alger vs Saoura
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 Ligue 1
USM Alger vs Saoura
1:2
Sep 20, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs USM Alger
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 Ligue 1
Saoura vs USM Alger
2:1
Nov 16, 2024 Ligue 1
USM Alger vs Saoura
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USM Alger Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Saoura Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentaleb O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USM Alger 95 / 100
Saoura 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USM Alger Saoura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USM Alger Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USM Alger went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

USM Alger scored in 74% of their last 35 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Saoura has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

USM Alger VS Saoura
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USM Alger

(Home)
19 Sept
Olympique Akbou
2 : 3
USM Alger
10 Sept
USM Alger
2 : 0
JS El Biar
04 Sept
Khenchela
0 : 0
USM Alger
15 Aug
Club Africain
0 : 0
USM Alger
06 Jun
Oran
2 : 2
USM Alger
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Saoura

(Away)
18 Sept
JS El Biar
4 : 0
Saoura
13 Sept
Horoya
3 : 1
Saoura
04 Sept
Saoura
1 : 0
Horoya
11 Aug
ES Ben Aknoun
2 : 2
Saoura
06 Aug
Harrach
1 : 1
Saoura
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)