Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Sat, Aug 15, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Utrecht host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Utrecht at 1.5 goals for, 1.38 against; AZ Alkmaar at 1.75 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Utrecht slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.56) point toward AZ Alkmaar. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Utrecht
28%
Draws
50%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AZ Alkmaar lately — more wins on the board than Utrecht.
  • AZ Alkmaar are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 15%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Utrecht AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 13 16
Draws 3 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
4:1
Jan 18, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
1:2
May 19, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Utrecht 23 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Utrecht AZ Alkmaar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Utrecht scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

AZ Alkmaar has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Solid form: Utrecht remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Utrecht VS AZ Alkmaar
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Utrecht

(Home)
24 Jul
Cambuur
0 : 1
Utrecht
24 Jul
Cambuur
1 : 0
Utrecht
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2
V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Jul
Utrecht
0 : 1
Apollon Limassol
27 Jun
Utrecht
1 : 2
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

AZ Alkmaar

(Away)
25 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
3 : 2
Olympiacos Piraeus
22 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
4 : 0
Genk
18 Jul
Waregem
1 : 1
AZ Alkmaar
15 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
0 : 1
Anderlecht
11 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1
Almere City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cambuur00000:00
2Sittard00000:00
3Telstar00000:00
4Zwolle00000:00
5PSV00000:00
6Ajax00000:00
7Twente00000:00
8Heerenveen00000:00
9Feyenoord00000:00
10Nijmegen00000:00
11Utrecht00000:00
12AZ Alkmaar00000:00
13Sparta Rotterdam00000:00
14Willem II00000:00
15Excelsior00000:00
16Den Haag00000:00
17G.A. Eagles00000:00
18Groningen00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)