Sport Picks
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan
J1 League 2026 Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 
Match Events
1'
1'
Oh Se-Hun
4'
4'
Shimamoto Y.
Assist: Inoue K.
45'
45'
Oh Se-Hun
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Shimizu S-Pulse in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shimizu S-Pulse.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- V-Varen Nagasaki have won more games recently than Shimizu S-Pulse.
- Win probability leans V-Varen Nagasaki's way, sitting at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | V-Varen Nagasaki | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 14 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 29, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:2
Apr 5, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
0:3
Sep 7, 2024 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:1
Mar 10, 2024 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
4:1
Jul 1, 2023 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Shimizu S-Pulse Compare
Top Goalscorer Oh Se-Hun
1 Goals Assists Leader Shimamoto Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
V-Varen Nagasaki 36 / 100
Shimizu S-Pulse 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
V-Varen Nagasaki Shimizu S-Pulse
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Shimizu S-Pulse has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
V-Varen Nagasaki found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).
V-Varen Nagasaki went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
V-Varen Nagasaki VS Shimizu S-Pulse
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Home) 17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Jun
Mito
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0 Mito
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0 Mito
17 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
3 : 2 Vissel Kobe
06 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 1 Okayama
03 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 2 Nagoya Grampus
25 Apr
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 2 Gamba Osaka
Page 1 of 3
Shimizu S-Pulse
(Away) 18 Jul
Karlsruher
1 : 1 Shimizu S-Pulse
18 Jul
Karlsruher
1 : 3 Shimizu S-Pulse
14 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
1 : 3 Shimizu S-Pulse
06 Jun
Yokohama F. Marinos
3 : 0 Shimizu S-Pulse
31 May
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 1 Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Karlsruher
1 : 1 Shimizu S-Pulse
18 Jul
Karlsruher
1 : 3 Shimizu S-Pulse
14 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
1 : 3 Shimizu S-Pulse
06 Jun
Yokohama F. Marinos
3 : 0 Shimizu S-Pulse
17 May
Okayama
2 : 0 Shimizu S-Pulse
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31:11 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28:22 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25:22 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23:39 | 18 |
| 10 | Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18:34 | 12 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29:25 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30:21 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33:31 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:25 | 28 |
| 6 | Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26:29 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23:25 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:28 | 23 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:29 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:31 | 21 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
