Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Valadares Gaia FC vs Oliveira do Douro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Pelegrini B.
5' Event
Couto J.
23' Event
Zakari B.

AI Match Summary

Oliveira do Douro in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Oliveira do Douro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Valadares Gaia FC
39%
Draws
30%
Oliveira do Douro
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Oliveira do Douro average 1.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Valadares Gaia FC's 0.63.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Valadares Gaia FC Clean Sheet 18%
Oliveira do Douro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valadares Gaia FC Oliveira do Douro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Valadares Gaia FC vs Oliveira do Douro
1:3
Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Oliveira do Douro vs Valadares Gaia FC
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valadares Gaia FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Zakari B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Oliveira do Douro Compare

Top Goalscorer Pelegrini B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Couto J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valadares Gaia FC 32 / 100
Oliveira do Douro 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valadares Gaia FC Oliveira do Douro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OLI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oliveira do Douro let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Valadares Gaia FC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Difficult form: Oliveira do Douro registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valadares Gaia FC VS Oliveira do Douro
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Valadares Gaia FC

(Home)
07 Apr
SC Salgueiros
6 : 1
Valadares Gaia FC
24 Mar
Valadares Gaia FC
2 : 1
ACDR Lamelas
17 Mar
Vila Mea
3 : 3
Valadares Gaia FC
09 Mar
Valadares Gaia FC
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
03 Mar
Florgrade
1 : 0
Valadares Gaia FC
Page 1 of 6

Oliveira do Douro

(Away)
07 Apr
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 1
Amarante FC
24 Mar
Rebordosa
2 : 0
Oliveira do Douro
17 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 2
Paredes
09 Mar
AD Marco 09
2 : 4
Oliveira do Douro
03 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Amarante FC26178140:1559
2Sao Joao de Ver26129527:1845
3Gondomar26127728:2043
4AD Marco 0926118729:2241
5Rebordosa26812627:2336
6Paredes2698931:2535
7SC Salgueiros2698935:2635
8Vitoria Guimaraes B26810835:3234
9Beira Mar26810831:3134
10Florgrade2689924:2433
11Oliveira do Douro26681225:3326
12Valadares Gaia FC26661422:4724
13ACDR Lamelas26731619:3924
14Vila Mea26641627:4522
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)