Sport Picks
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Spain
LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia 
Match Events
6'
6'
Saravia Renzo
8'
8'
Nteka R.
Penalty Missed
20'
20'
Lejeune F.
Assist: Gumbau G.
AI Match Summary
The LaLiga 2025/2026 game between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rayo Vallecano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Rayo Vallecano's 1.33 goals per match outpaces what Valencia have produced (1.24).
- 59% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Valencia Clean Sheet 14%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Valencia | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 14, 2026 LaLiga
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
1:1
Dec 1, 2025 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
1:1
Apr 19, 2025 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 LaLiga
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
0:1
May 12, 2024 LaLiga
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Valencia Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Rayo Vallecano Compare
Top Goalscorer Lejeune F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Valencia 31 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Valencia Rayo Vallecano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Rayo Vallecano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Valencia found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Rayo Vallecano let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Valencia remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Valencia VS Rayo Vallecano
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Valencia
(Home) 15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
11 Sept
Sevilla
1 : 0 Valencia
06 Sept
Valencia
0 : 5 Barcelona
30 Aug
Dep. A Coruna
3 : 1 Valencia
25 Aug
Valencia
0 : 1 Betis
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Valencia
0 : 5 Barcelona
25 Aug
Valencia
0 : 1 Betis
22 Aug
Valencia
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
12 Aug
Valencia
0 : 1 Teruel
08 Aug
Valencia
1 : 2 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 3
Rayo Vallecano
(Away) 19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
15 Aug
Sevilla
2 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Aug
Ipswich
3 : 0 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 72 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 69 |
| 5 | Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | 46 |
| 12 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | 29 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)
