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Vanuatu vs New Caledonia

World World

Friendly International
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
VS
04:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu host New Caledonia in the Friendly International. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. New Caledonia have shipped 1.28 goals a game lately, while Vanuatu have conceded 2.35 and scored 1.23. Past meetings favor New Caledonia slightly — 0-2-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 9, 2024, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.00, favoring New Caledonia. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Vanuatu
15%
Draws
32%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • New Caledonia have won more games recently than Vanuatu.
  • Win probability leans Vanuatu's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 20%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu New Caledonia
Matches Played 26 18
Wins 9 11
Draws 3 1
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.23 2.33
Goals Conceded 2.35 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 9, 2024 Friendly International
New Caledonia vs Vanuatu
0:0
Aug 31, 2024 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
0:0
Jun 18, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
0:0
Nov 28, 2023 Pacific Games
New Caledonia vs Vanuatu
1:0
Oct 8, 2023 Friendly International
New Caledonia vs Vanuatu
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu 58 / 100
New Caledonia 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu scored in 69% of their last 26 games.

New Caledonia has conceded goals in 61% of their last 18 outings.

Recent resilience: Vanuatu stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

New Caledonia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vanuatu VS New Caledonia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vanuatu

(Home)
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
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New Caledonia

(Away)
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2
New Caledonia
24 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 3
New Zealand
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
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