Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vardar vs Bregalnica Stip

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL National Arena Toshe Proeski, Skopje
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Danev D.
36'
Ferreira Pires M. A.
45'
Kocev S.

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL game between Vardar and Bregalnica Stip finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Vardar
30%
Draws
27%
Bregalnica Stip
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Bregalnica Stip carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vardar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Bregalnica Stip Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Bregalnica Stip
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 19 22
Draws 5 3
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.09 2.65
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Bregalnica Stip
2:0
May 1, 2024 1. MFL
Bregalnica Stip vs Vardar
0:3
Feb 25, 2024 1. MFL
Vardar vs Bregalnica Stip
2:0
Oct 1, 2023 1. MFL
Bregalnica Stip vs Vardar
0:0
May 3, 2017 1. MFL
Bregalnica Stip vs Vardar
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Danev D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zakaric G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bregalnica Stip Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 95 / 100
Bregalnica Stip 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Bregalnica Stip

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vardar scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Solid form: Vardar remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Bregalnica Stip has conceded goals in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Bregalnica Stip
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 7

Bregalnica Stip

(Away)
23 Sept
Bregalnica Stip
1 : 0
FK Skopje
13 Sept
Sileks
2 : 2
Bregalnica Stip
09 Sept
Teteks
1 : 4
Bregalnica Stip
04 Sept
Bregalnica Stip
0 : 1
Shkendija Haracine
28 Aug
Struga
4 : 0
Bregalnica Stip
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 8 6 1 1 20:8 19
2 Struga 8 5 2 1 19:5 17
3 Vardar 8 4 2 2 14:8 14
4 Tikves 8 3 4 1 17:7 13
5 Shkendija Haracine 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
6 Bregalnica Stip 8 3 1 4 11:13 10
7 Sileks 8 2 3 3 13:10 9
8 Arsimi 8 2 2 4 6:19 8
9 Bashkimi 8 1 1 6 7:25 4
10 FK Skopje 8 0 3 5 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)