Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A 2023/2024

Borgosesia Calcio

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varese FC play Borgosesia Calcio in the Serie D - Group A 2023/2024. Varese FC are favorites here. Recently, Varese FC averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Borgosesia Calcio averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Varese FC won 2, Borgosesia Calcio won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 17, 2024 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Varese FC and 1.19 for Borgosesia Calcio. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%

Varese FC

20%

Draws

15%

Borgosesia Calcio

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Varese FC picked up more points recently compared to Borgosesia Calcio.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 20%

Borgosesia Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Varese FC	Borgosesia Calcio
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	14	2
Draws	7	5
Losses	10	23
Goals Scored	1.35	0.57
Goals Conceded	1.48	1.8

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Borgosesia Calcio

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Sep 20, 2023 Serie D - Group A

Borgosesia Calcio vs Varese FC

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Feb 16, 2022 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Borgosesia Calcio

Possession: 41% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Oct 10, 2021 Serie D - Group A

Borgosesia Calcio vs Varese FC

Possession: 49% - 60% Cards: 4 - 4

2:2

May 23, 2021 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Borgosesia Calcio

Possession: 60% - 53% Cards: 4 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Maira F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Cottarelli N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Borgosesia Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Manara N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 63 / 100

Borgosesia Calcio 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Varese FC Borgosesia Calcio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (1)

Secondary Pick Varese FC & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +13.7%

1.75

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varese FC attacking → ← attacking Borgosesia Calcio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Borgosesia Calcio let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Borgosesia Calcio lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 11

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alcione Milano	38	23	10	5	70:27	79
2	Chisola	38	21	9	8	64:37	72
3	Varese FC	38	18	12	8	49:33	66
4	Vado	38	17	14	7	51:28	65
5	NovaRomentin	38	18	11	9	58:38	65
6	Bra	38	18	11	9	47:30	65
7	Ligorna	38	17	12	9	44:37	63
8	Asti Calcio	38	16	11	11	42:33	59
9	Albenga	38	15	15	8	51:33	58
10	Sanremese	38	13	13	12	34:33	52
11	Fezzanese	38	14	9	15	42:50	51
12	Gozzano	38	10	15	13	35:38	45
13	Lavagnese	38	11	11	16	46:47	44
14	Vogherese	38	10	12	16	42:57	42
15	Derthona FbC	38	9	14	15	34:52	41
16	AC Chieri	38	8	15	15	39:52	39
17	Pinerolo	38	8	13	17	25:44	37
18	Alba	38	10	7	21	39:63	37
19	PDHA	38	5	7	26	25:63	22
20	Borgosesia Calcio	38	5	7	26	25:67	22