Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A

Varese FC

1 - 0

Derthona FbC

Our Tip

Match Events

Tentoni T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varese FC in this Serie D - Group A matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varese FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Varese FC

22%

Draws

18%

Derthona FbC

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Varese FC have won more games recently than Derthona FbC.
Model gives Varese FC a 60% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Varese FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%

Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Varese FC	Derthona FbC
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	13	10
Draws	7	7
Losses	10	14
Goals Scored	0.88	0.75
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Derthona FbC

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 0 - 3

1:0

Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Derthona FbC vs Varese FC

Possession: 59% - 60% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Derthona FbC vs Varese FC

Possession: 58% - 43% Cards: 0 - 3

1:0

Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Derthona FbC

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Derthona FbC vs Varese FC

Possession: 52% - 41% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tentoni T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Derthona FbC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 68 / 100

Derthona FbC 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Varese FC Derthona FbC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Derthona FbC has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Varese FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Derthona FbC

0.88 Goals Scored 0.75

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38

38% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vado	34	24	6	4	69:24	78
2	Ligorna	34	21	9	4	64:26	72
3	AS Biellese	34	16	9	9	48:29	57
4	Varese FC	34	16	8	10	43:43	56
5	Chisola	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
6	Sestri Levante	34	15	9	10	54:34	54
7	Sanremese	34	13	10	11	37:30	49
8	Valenzana	34	12	9	13	33:48	45
9	Celle Varazze	34	12	8	14	41:47	44
10	Saluzzo	34	11	10	13	48:44	43
11	Club Milano	34	12	6	16	43:49	42
12	Imperia Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:44	41
13	Cairese	34	9	13	12	29:34	40
14	Derthona FbC	34	11	7	16	36:46	40
15	Gozzano	34	9	12	13	37:42	39
16	Asti Calcio	34	8	11	15	32:42	35
17	Lavagnese	34	5	12	17	32:52	27
18	NovaRomentin	34	6	3	25	26:82	16