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Varese FC vs Sestri Levante

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Own Goal
29' Event
Ferretti A.
45' Event
Salducco V.

AI Match Summary

Sestri Levante in this Serie D - Group A matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sestri Levante.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Varese FC
33%
Draws
27%
Sestri Levante
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Sestri Levante at 1.25 per game, Varese FC at 0.88.
  • Win probability leans Varese FC's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Sestri Levante
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Sestri Levante
1:3
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Varese FC
0:1
Mar 30, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Varese FC
1:1
Nov 14, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Sestri Levante
1:0
Feb 14, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs Sestri Levante
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sestri Levante Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferretti A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Salducco V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 50 / 100
Sestri Levante 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Sestri Levante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Sestri Levante let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Sestri Levante
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese FC

(Home)
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
09 May
AS Biellese
1 : 2
Varese FC
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 0
Saluzzo
19 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 0
Derthona FbC
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Sestri Levante

(Away)
03 May
Sestri Levante
0 : 2
Sanremese
26 Apr
Celle Varazze
1 : 0
Sestri Levante
19 Apr
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
Asti Calcio
12 Apr
AS Biellese
2 : 0
Sestri Levante
02 Apr
Sestri Levante
5 : 2
NovaRomentin
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vado34246469:2478
2Ligorna34219464:2672
3AS Biellese34169948:2957
4Varese FC341681043:4356
5Chisola341671144:3655
6Sestri Levante341591054:3454
7Sanremese3413101137:3049
8Valenzana341291333:4845
9Celle Varazze341281441:4744
10Saluzzo3411101348:4443
11Club Milano341261643:4942
12Imperia Calcio3410111336:4441
13Cairese349131229:3440
14Derthona FbC341171636:4640
15Gozzano349121337:4239
16Asti Calcio348111532:4235
17Lavagnese345121732:5227
18NovaRomentin34632526:8216
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)