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Vastese vs Vigor Senigallia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Di Nardo A.
88' Event
Pesaresi D.
90' Event
Bucari G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 game between Vastese and Vigor Senigallia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Vastese
15%
Draws
58%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Vigor Senigallia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Vigor Senigallia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Vastese Clean Sheet 18%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastese Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 8 17
Draws 8 13
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.9 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Vigor Senigallia
1:2
Nov 6, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Vastese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastese Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Nardo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Pesaresi D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bucari G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastese 20 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastese Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vastese scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Vigor Senigallia conceded in 77% of 39 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Vastese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vastese VS Vigor Senigallia
1 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastese

(Home)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)