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MLS Next Pro Dignity Health Sports Park

Real Monarchs

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ventura County play Real Monarchs in the MLS Next Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ventura County averaged 1.77 goals scored and 2 conceded. Real Monarchs averaged 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Ventura County won 4, Real Monarchs won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 28, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Ventura County and 1.56 for Real Monarchs. This points to a Real Monarchs double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Ventura County

15%

Draws

46%

Real Monarchs

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Real Monarchs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Ventura County picked up more points recently compared to Real Monarchs.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 47%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%

Ventura County Clean Sheet 15%

Real Monarchs Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 79%

Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ventura County	Real Monarchs
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	18
Draws	0	0
Losses	17	12
Goals Scored	1.77	2
Goals Conceded	2	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Ventura County vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 2 - 4

3:1

Apr 13, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Ventura County vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Sep 15, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs Ventura County

Possession: 54% - 53% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Jun 2, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Ventura County vs Real Monarchs

Possession: 49% - 41% Cards: 3 - 3

4:3

Apr 7, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs Ventura County

Possession: 48% - 46% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ventura County Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia V.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Placias J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Real Monarchs Compare

Top Goalscorer Barea J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ventura County 38 / 100

Real Monarchs 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ventura County Real Monarchs

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Real Monarchs or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.4%

1.39

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ventura County attacking → ← attacking Real Monarchs

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ventura County scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Real Monarchs let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Ventura County went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Real Monarchs lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 54

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
3	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
4	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
5	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
6	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
7	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
8	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
2	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
3	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
4	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
5	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
6	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
7	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
8	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
2	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
3	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
4	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
5	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
6	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
7	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
4	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
5	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
6	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
7	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
3	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
4	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
5	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
6	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
7	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
8	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
9	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
10	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
11	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
12	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
13	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
14	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
15	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14
16	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
4	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
5	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
6	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
7	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
8	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
9	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
10	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
11	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
12	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17
13	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
14	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9