Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024

Valadares Gaia FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vila Mea play Valadares Gaia FC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vila Mea averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Valadares Gaia FC averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Vila Mea won 1, Valadares Gaia FC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 17, 2024 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Vila Mea and 1.19 for Valadares Gaia FC. This points to a Vila Mea double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Vila Mea

32%

Draws

26%

Valadares Gaia FC

Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Vila Mea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Vila Mea picked up more points recently compared to Valadares Gaia FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Vila Mea Clean Sheet 20%

Valadares Gaia FC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vila Mea	Valadares Gaia FC
Matches Played	38	30
Wins	12	7
Draws	14	8
Losses	12	15
Goals Scored	1.24	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.21	1.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Vila Mea vs Valadares Gaia FC

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

3:3

Dec 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Valadares Gaia FC vs Vila Mea

Possession: 47% - 42% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Mea Compare

Top Goalscorer Quinones C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Zidane

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Valadares Gaia FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva Fonseca S. F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ze Gomes

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Mea 42 / 100

Valadares Gaia FC 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vila Mea Valadares Gaia FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vila Mea or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vila Mea attacking → ← attacking Valadares Gaia FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Mea scored in 74% of their last 38 games.

Valadares Gaia FC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Vila Mea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Valadares Gaia FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 29

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amarante FC	26	17	8	1	40:15	59
2	Sao Joao de Ver	26	12	9	5	27:18	45
3	Gondomar	26	12	7	7	28:20	43
4	AD Marco 09	26	11	8	7	29:22	41
5	Rebordosa	26	8	12	6	27:23	36
6	Paredes	26	9	8	9	31:25	35
7	SC Salgueiros	26	9	8	9	35:26	35
8	Vitoria Guimaraes B	26	8	10	8	35:32	34
9	Beira Mar	26	8	10	8	31:31	34
10	Florgrade	26	8	9	9	24:24	33
11	Oliveira do Douro	26	6	8	12	25:33	26
12	Valadares Gaia FC	26	6	6	14	22:47	24
13	ACDR Lamelas	26	7	3	16	19:39	24
14	Vila Mea	26	6	4	16	27:45	22