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Vila Nova FC W vs Paraiso EC W

Brazil Brazil

Brasileiro A3 Women 2024
Sat, May 11, 2024
2 - 2
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vila Nova FC W play Paraiso EC W in the Brasileiro A3 Women 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vila Nova FC W averaged 2.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Paraiso EC W averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. In past meetings, Vila Nova FC W won 1, Paraiso EC W won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 11, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.07 for Vila Nova FC W and 1.48 for Paraiso EC W. This points to a Vila Nova FC W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Vila Nova FC W
32%
Draws
18%
Paraiso EC W
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Vila Nova FC W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Vila Nova FC W picked up more points recently compared to Paraiso EC W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.07 vs 1.48 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Vila Nova FC W Clean Sheet 16%
Paraiso EC W Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Nova FC W Paraiso EC W
Matches Played 32 16
Wins 15 1
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 2.06 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Brasileiro A3 Women
Vila Nova FC W vs Paraiso EC W
2:2
May 4, 2024 Brasileiro A3 Women
Paraiso EC W vs Vila Nova FC W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Nova FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Samara
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Paraiso EC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Amanda Neymar
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ingrid
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Nova FC W 48 / 100
Paraiso EC W 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Nova FC W Paraiso EC W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vila Nova FC W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vila Nova FC W attacking → ← attacking Paraiso EC W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Nova FC W scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Paraiso EC W let in goals in 81% of their last 16 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Vila Nova FC W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Paraiso EC W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 12
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.71
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14