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Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Villarrobledo play Marchamalo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 18. It looks like a close match. Recently, Villarrobledo averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Marchamalo averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Villarrobledo won 2, Marchamalo won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 1, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Villarrobledo and 0.94 for Marchamalo. This points to a Villarrobledo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Villarrobledo
32%
Draws
29%
Marchamalo
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Villarrobledo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Villarrobledo picked up more points recently compared to Marchamalo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Villarrobledo Clean Sheet 24%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villarrobledo Marchamalo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo
2:1
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Villarrobledo
1:1
Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo
0:6
Oct 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Villarrobledo
2:4
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villarrobledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Marchamalo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayiha A. P. Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villarrobledo 40 / 100
Marchamalo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villarrobledo Marchamalo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villarrobledo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Villarrobledo attacking → ← attacking Marchamalo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villarrobledo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Marchamalo let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Villarrobledo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Marchamalo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 33
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Puertollano C.F.34228454:2174
2CD Tarancon34227562:2573
3Toledo341911455:1768
4Albacete B341713449:1764
5Manchego Ciudad Real34187952:2961
6Villarrubia341581142:3553
7Villacanas3412121029:2648
8San Clemente3412111136:4447
9CD Guadalajara B3411101330:3743
10Villarrobledo3410131130:3643
11Huracan de Balazote341251733:4541
12Illescas348131321:3237
13Marchamalo341071738:4737
14La Solana348111526:3835
15Azuqueca347131434:3934
16CD Pedroneras347121528:4333
17Sonseca34572228:6922
18Cazalegas34462417:6418