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Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Barradao, Salvador
Vitoria Logo

Vitoria

0 - 2
FT
Bahia Logo

Bahia

Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Matheuzinho
42'
Rodrigo Nestor
46'
Sub
Tarzia D. In: Pochettino T.
Out: Tarzia D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bahia in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Vitoria
15%
Draws
64%
Bahia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vitoria lately — more wins on the board than Bahia.
  • Bahia are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Vitoria Clean Sheet 16%
Bahia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Bahia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Bahia
0:2
Mar 11, 2026 Serie A Betano
Bahia vs Vitoria
1:1
Mar 7, 2026 Baiano
Bahia vs Vitoria
2:1
Jan 25, 2026 Baiano
Vitoria vs Bahia
0:1
Oct 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Bahia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Veliz A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jean Lucas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria 28 / 100
Bahia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Bahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Bahia has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Vitoria stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria VS Bahia
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria

(Home)
20 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 3
Cruzeiro
13 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 2
Vitoria
07 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 0
Gremio
03 Sept
Vitoria
0 : 2
Vasco
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Vitoria
Page 1 of 6

Bahia

(Away)
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 37:32 43
8 Santos 28 11 8 9 43:41 41
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Sao Paulo 28 10 6 12 33:32 36
11 Bragantino 28 10 6 12 33:32 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)