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Waterford vs Kerry

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Lonergan T.
20' Event
Murphy C.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Carty C.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Waterford and Kerry finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Waterford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Waterford
30%
Draws
33%
Kerry
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Waterford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Kerry carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Waterford taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Waterford have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Waterford Clean Sheet 68%
Kerry Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterford Kerry
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 11 7
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.65 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Waterford vs Kerry
3:2
Oct 14, 2023 Division 1
Kerry vs Waterford
1:1
Aug 4, 2023 Division 1
Waterford vs Kerry
3:0
Jun 5, 2023 Division 1
Kerry vs Waterford
0:6
Apr 14, 2023 Division 1
Waterford vs Kerry
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waterford Compare

Top Goalscorer Lonergan T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carty C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer McGrath S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterford 77 / 100
Kerry 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterford Kerry

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waterford Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Waterford's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Kerry let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Waterford has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Waterford VS Kerry
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterford

(Home)
18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Waterford
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0
Sligo Rovers
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
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Kerry

(Away)
18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0
Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1
Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
21 Aug
Kerry
1 : 1
UC Dublin
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