Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 Sky Stadium, Wellington 
Match Events
14'
14'
White R.
Assist: Madanha P.
28'
28'
Piper C.
30'
30'
Kelly-Heald L.
AI Match Summary
The A-League 2025/2026 game between Wellington Phoenix and Adelaide Utd finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Adelaide Utd come out ahead of Wellington Phoenix on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 16%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix | Adelaide Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 6, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Wellington Phoenix
1:1
Jan 11, 2026 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
2:2
Nov 29, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Apr 18, 2025 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Wellington Phoenix
3:2
Jan 11, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide Utd
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer Hughes I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Piper C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Adelaide Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer White R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Duzel L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix 31 / 100
Adelaide Utd 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix Adelaide Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Wellington Phoenix scored in 80% of their last 30 games.
Adelaide Utd let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Wellington Phoenix stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix VS Adelaide Utd
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix
(Home) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 0 Perth Glory
01 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 1 Sydney FC
21 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 5 Auckland FC
06 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 3 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 3
Adelaide Utd
(Away) 11 Aug
Adelaide Utd
0 : 2 Cong An Ha Noi
30 Jul
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd
20 Jul
Playford Patriots
0 : 2 Adelaide Utd
14 Jul
The Cove FC
0 : 5 Adelaide Utd
15 May
Adelaide Utd
0 : 3 Auckland FC
Page 1 of 6
30 Jul
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd
20 Jul
Playford Patriots
0 : 2 Adelaide Utd
14 Jul
The Cove FC
0 : 5 Adelaide Utd
09 May
Auckland FC
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
