Sport Picks
Werder Bremen vs Mainz
Germany
Bundesliga 2025/2026 Weserstadion, Bremen 
Match Events
6'
6'
Nebel P.
Assist: Mwene P.
38'
38'
Bittencourt L.
46'
46'
Sub
Topp K. In: Njinmah J.
Out: Topp K.
AI Match Summary
Mainz in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mainz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Mainz have won more games recently than Werder Bremen.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Werder Bremen Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Werder Bremen | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 17 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 2.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 2.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 15, 2026 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Mainz
0:2
Nov 1, 2025 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Werder Bremen
1:1
Jan 31, 2025 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Mainz
1:0
Sep 15, 2024 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Werder Bremen
1:2
Feb 3, 2024 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Werder Bremen
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Werder Bremen Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Mainz Compare
Top Goalscorer Nebel P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lee Jae-Sung
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Werder Bremen 30 / 100
Mainz 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Werder Bremen Mainz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Werder Bremen's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Mainz let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Werder Bremen has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Werder Bremen VS Mainz
2.38 Goals Scored 4.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Werder Bremen
(Home) 22 Aug
Luneburger Hansa
0 : 3 Werder Bremen
15 Aug
Werder Bremen
0 : 1 Auxerre
08 Aug
Werder Bremen
2 : 2 Paderborn
01 Aug
Energie Cottbus
2 : 4 Werder Bremen
25 Jul
Werder Bremen
2 : 0 Bochum
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Werder Bremen
0 : 1 Auxerre
08 Aug
Werder Bremen
2 : 2 Paderborn
25 Jul
Werder Bremen
2 : 0 Bochum
22 Jul
Werder Bremen
2 : 0 Okayama
16 May
Werder Bremen
0 : 2 Dortmund
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Mainz
(Away) 15 Aug
Mainz
2 : 1 Bournemouth
08 Aug
Mainz
4 : 0 Paris FC
01 Aug
Udinese
3 : 3 Mainz
31 Jul
Mainz
1 : 0 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Udinese
3 : 3 Mainz
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10 Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11 Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2 Mainz
03 May
St. Pauli
1 : 2 Mainz
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 89 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 62 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 59 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | 44 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | 43 |
| 10 | Mainz | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | 39 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | 29 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | 26 |
| 18 | St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | 26 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
