Sport Picks
Match Events
25'
25'
Elder C.
48'
48'
Campbell G.
56'
56'
Weimann A.
AI Match Summary
Derby in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
67%
15%
18%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: West Brom
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Derby lately — more wins on the board than West Brom.
- Win probability leans West Brom's way, sitting at 90%.
- Derby arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Derby, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Derby here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
West Brom Clean Sheet 68%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | West Brom | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
0:1
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
West Brom vs Derby
1:2
Apr 21, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
1:3
Dec 26, 2024 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
West Brom Compare
Top Goalscorer Heggebo A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Ward J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
West Brom 95 / 100
Derby 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
West Brom Derby
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick West Brom Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
West Brom went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
West Brom's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Derby let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
West Brom VS Derby
2.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
West Brom
(Home) 15 Aug
Norwich
1 : 2 West Brom
08 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 4 West Brom
01 Aug
Peterborough
0 : 2 West Brom
25 Jul
Shrewsbury
1 : 4 West Brom
17 Jul
West Brom
4 : 1 Bromley
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
West Brom
4 : 1 Bromley
25 Apr
West Brom
0 : 0 Ipswich
21 Apr
West Brom
3 : 0 Watford
10 Apr
West Brom
0 : 0 Millwall
03 Apr
West Brom
2 : 2 Wrexham
Page 1 of 3
Derby
(Away) 15 Aug
Charlton
2 : 1 Derby
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2 Lincoln City
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3 Derby
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Charlton
2 : 1 Derby
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3 Derby
24 Jul
Freiburg
3 : 1 Derby
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
