Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Xelaju vs Municipal

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Ruiz K.
10'
Sub
Mendez J. In: Lopez E.
Out: Mendez J.
14' Event
Romero M.

AI Match Summary

Municipal in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Xelaju
6%
Draws
90%
Municipal
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Municipal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Municipal lately — more wins on the board than Xelaju.
  • Municipal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Municipal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Municipal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Municipal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 10%
Municipal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xelaju Municipal
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 12 22
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.75 2.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Municipal
1:2
May 17, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Xelaju
4:1
Mar 20, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Municipal
3:1
Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Xelaju
1:0
Nov 3, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Municipal
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Municipal Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xelaju 10 / 100
Municipal 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xelaju Municipal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MUN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Xelaju scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Municipal has conceded goals in 53% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Xelaju stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Xelaju VS Municipal
1.75 Goals Scored 2.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Xelaju

(Home)
25 Jul
Deportivo San Pedro
1 : 0
Xelaju
24 May
Xelaju
1 : 2
Municipal
17 May
Municipal
4 : 1
Xelaju
11 May
Xelaju
2 : 0
Comunicaciones
08 May
Comunicaciones
2 : 2
Xelaju
Page 1 of 6

Municipal

(Away)
25 Jul
Municipal
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
24 May
Xelaju
1 : 2
Municipal
17 May
Municipal
4 : 1
Xelaju
10 May
Municipal
5 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
06 May
Deportivo Mixco
0 : 2
Municipal
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Xelaju3
Marquense1
Comunicaciones4
Antigua3
Municipal3
Guastatoya0
Deportivo Mixco2
Coban Imperial2
Semi-finals
Xelaju4
Comunicaciones2
Municipal7
Deportivo Mixco0
Final
Xelaju2
Municipal6