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Xelaju vs Municipal Prediction & H2H Stats

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Ruiz K.
10'
Sub
Mendez J. In: Lopez E.
Out: Mendez J.
14' Event
Romero M.

AI Match Summary

Municipal in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Xelaju
30%
Draws
43%
Municipal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Municipal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Municipal lately — more wins on the board than Xelaju.
  • Xelaju are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Municipal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Municipal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Municipal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 19%
Municipal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xelaju Municipal
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 20
Draws 8 7
Losses 11 2
Goals Scored 1.58 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.26 0.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Xelaju
2:0
May 24, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Municipal
1:2
May 17, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Xelaju
4:1
Mar 20, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Municipal
3:1
Jan 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Xelaju
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Municipal Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xelaju 42 / 100
Municipal 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xelaju Municipal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xelaju found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Xelaju has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Municipal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Xelaju VS Municipal
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Xelaju

(Home)
04 Oct
Xelaju
2 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
27 Sept
Xelaju
2 : 3
Comunicaciones
24 Sept
Xelaju
4 : 0
Antigua
20 Sept
Suchitepequez
2 : 2
Xelaju
13 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Xelaju
Page 1 of 7

Municipal

(Away)
25 Sept
Municipal
3 : 0
Suchitepequez
14 Sept
Municipal
2 : 2
Malacateco
10 Sept
Aurora F.C.
1 : 2
Municipal
06 Sept
Municipal
0 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
30 Aug
Comunicaciones
0 : 1
Municipal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Xelaju 3
Marquense 1
Comunicaciones 4
Antigua 3
Municipal 3
Guastatoya 0
Deportivo Mixco 2
Coban Imperial 2
Semi-finals
Xelaju 4
Comunicaciones 2
Municipal 7
Deportivo Mixco 0
Final
Xelaju 2
Municipal 6