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Yeoju Citizen vs Ulsan Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
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AI Match Summary

Yeoju Citizen play Ulsan Citizen in the K3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Yeoju Citizen averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Ulsan Citizen averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Yeoju Citizen won 2, Ulsan Citizen won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 10, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Yeoju Citizen and 0.94 for Ulsan Citizen. This points to a Ulsan Citizen double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Yeoju Citizen
18%
Draws
41%
Ulsan Citizen
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Ulsan Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Yeoju Citizen picked up more points recently compared to Ulsan Citizen.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Yeoju Citizen Clean Sheet 24%
Ulsan Citizen Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yeoju Citizen Ulsan Citizen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.28 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Yeoju Citizen
1:0
Mar 29, 2026 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Ulsan Citizen
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Ulsan Citizen
1:2
May 3, 2025 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Yeoju Citizen
0:1
Jul 7, 2024 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Ulsan Citizen
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yeoju Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Choi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ulsan Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Kim Min-Gi
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yeoju Citizen 42 / 100
Ulsan Citizen 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yeoju Citizen Ulsan Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ulsan Citizen or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Yeoju Citizen attacking → ← attacking Ulsan Citizen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yeoju Citizen scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Ulsan Citizen let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Yeoju Citizen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ulsan Citizen lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 36
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Siheung Citizen17124124:1440
2Pocheon17105230:1535
3Daejeon Korail1794427:1231
4Busan Kyotong1786326:1330
5Changwon1767418:1625
6Dangjin Citizen1764727:2622
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Gyeongju KHNP1747623:2419
9Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
10Gangneung1754815:2619
11Chuncheon1745830:2917
12Yangpyeong1737720:2916
13Mokpo1729614:2515
14Jeonbuk 217161019:409