Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Yuen Long vs Pegasus

Hong Kong Hong Kong

FA Cup 2020
Thu, Mar 12, 2020
4 - 5
06:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Kessi
35' Event
Sasaki S.
44' Event
Moser Jean

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-5, with Pegasus advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Yuen Long
20%
Draws
51%
Pegasus
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pegasus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pegasus come out ahead of Yuen Long on wins alone.
  • Model gives Yuen Long a 29% chance of winning this.
  • Pegasus arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pegasus, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Yuen Long Clean Sheet 20%
Pegasus Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yuen Long Pegasus
Matches Played 21 26
Wins 4 13
Draws 8 2
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.95 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2020 Premier League
Yuen Long vs Pegasus
0:0
Mar 12, 2020 FA Cup
Yuen Long vs Pegasus
4:5
Nov 25, 2019 Premier League
Pegasus vs Yuen Long
2:1
Apr 13, 2019 Sapling Cup
Yuen Long vs Pegasus
3:2
Apr 7, 2019 Premier League
Yuen Long vs Pegasus
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yuen Long Compare

Top Goalscorer Mikael
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kessi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Pegasus Compare

Top Goalscorer Moser Jean
3 Goals
Assists Leader Sasaki S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yuen Long 58 / 100
Pegasus 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yuen Long Pegasus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Yuen Long Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Yuen Long scored in 76% of their last 21 outings.

Pegasus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 26 matches.

Recent resilience: Yuen Long stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Pegasus
0 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Yuen Long

(Home)
12 Mar
Yuen Long
4 : 5
Pegasus
29 Feb
Tai Po
2 : 2
Yuen Long
15 Feb
Yuen Long
4 : 3
Happy Valley
12 Feb
Yuen Long
1 : 2
Southern District
19 Jan
Happy Valley
1 : 1
Yuen Long
Page 1 of 5

Pegasus

(Away)
23 May
Pegasus
1 : 5
Lee Man Warriors
19 May
Pegasus
2 : 1
Kitchee
15 May
Eastern AA
4 : 0
Pegasus
11 May
Hong Kong Rangers
0 : 2
Pegasus
06 May
Happy Valley
1 : 3
Pegasus
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Kitchee -
TBD -
Hong Kong Rangers 2
Eastern AA 8
Yuen Long -
TBD -
TBD -
Pegasus -
Southern District -
TBD -
Lee Man Warriors 2
Tai Po 3
Guangzhou R&F (Hong Kong) -
TBD -
TBD -
Happy Valley -
Quarter-finals
Kitchee 0
Eastern AA 2
Yuen Long 4
Pegasus 5
Southern District 1
Tai Po 4
Guangzhou R&F (Hong Kong) 4
Happy Valley 0
Semi-finals
Eastern AA 5
Pegasus 0
Tai Po 2
Guangzhou R&F (Hong Kong) 3
Final
Eastern AA 2
Guangzhou R&F (Hong Kong) 0