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Zambia vs Kenya

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship Moi International Sports Centre (Kasarani), Nairobi
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Tembo O.
48'
Mumba P.
52'
Kampamba K.

AI Match Summary

The African Nations Championship game between Zambia and Kenya finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kenya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Zambia
30%
Draws
54%
Kenya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kenya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kenya come out ahead of Zambia on wins alone.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Kenya taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Zambia Clean Sheet 22%
Kenya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zambia Kenya
Matches Played 26 24
Wins 8 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2025 African Nations Championship
Zambia vs Kenya
0:1
Jun 27, 2024 COSAFA Cup
Zambia vs Kenya
0:2
Oct 9, 2020 Friendly International
Kenya vs Zambia
2:1
Sep 4, 2016 Africa Cup of Nations
Zambia vs Kenya
1:1
Sep 6, 2015 Africa Cup of Nations
Kenya vs Zambia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zambia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Kenya Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogam R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zambia 10 / 100
Kenya 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zambia Kenya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kenya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Zambia found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (26 games).

Defensive concern: Kenya conceded in 58% of 24 recent games.

Recent resilience: Zambia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zambia VS Kenya
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Zambia

(Home)
31 Mar
Argentina
5 : 0
Zambia
29 Dec
Zambia
0 : 3
Morocco
26 Dec
Zambia
0 : 0
Comoros
22 Dec
Mali
1 : 1
Zambia
16 Dec
D.R. Congo
2 : 0
Zambia
Page 1 of 6

Kenya

(Away)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
30 Mar
Grenada
0 : 3
Kenya
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Senegal
8 : 0
Kenya
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
2 Morocco 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 D.R. Congo 4 2 0 2 5:4 6
4 Angola 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Zambia 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 4 3 1 0 5:1 10
2 Madagascar 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Mauritania 4 2 1 1 2:1 7
4 Burkina Faso 4 1 0 3 5:7 3
5 Central Africa 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
2 Algeria 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
3 South Africa 4 1 3 0 6:5 6
4 Guinea 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Niger 4 0 2 2 0:3 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 3 1 2 0 5:1 5
2 Senegal 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Nigeria 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Congo 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)