Sport Picks
Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora 
Match Events
15'
15'
Jansson K.
17'
17'
Gul D.
(Penalty)
24'
24'
Gul D.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal 2025/2026 game between Estrela da Amadora and FC Porto finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Porto.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Estrela da Amadora
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Estrela da Amadora a 42% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- FC Porto have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 20%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Estrela da Amadora | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 20 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 26, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
1:2
Dec 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Estrela da Amadora
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
2:0
Dec 16, 2024 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Estrela da Amadora
2:0
Feb 17, 2024 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Estrela da Amadora
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Estrela da Amadora Compare
Top Goalscorer Cabral J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
FC Porto Compare
Top Goalscorer Gul D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Estrela da Amadora 42 / 100
FC Porto 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Estrela da Amadora FC Porto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Estrela da Amadora's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Estrela da Amadora went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
FC Porto let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Estrela da Amadora VS FC Porto
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Estrela da Amadora
(Home) 18 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 Casa Pia
15 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0 Naval 1893
16 May
Braga
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
11 May
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 0 Famalicao
02 May
Moreirense
3 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 Casa Pia
15 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0 Naval 1893
11 May
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 0 Famalicao
26 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 FC Porto
11 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 1 Sporting CP
Page 1 of 4
FC Porto
(Away) 16 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Santa Clara
10 May
AFS
3 : 1 FC Porto
02 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Alverca
26 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 FC Porto
22 Apr
FC Porto
0 : 0 Sporting CP
Page 1 of 6
10 May
AFS
3 : 1 FC Porto
26 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 FC Porto
16 Apr
Nottingham
1 : 0 FC Porto
12 Apr
Estoril
1 : 3 FC Porto
22 Mar
Braga
1 : 2 FC Porto
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)