Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Itabaiana vs Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Rhuan
34'
Guilherme Ferreira
38'
Gustavo Crecci

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Itabaiana and Ferroviaria finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Itabaiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Itabaiana
20%
Draws
38%
Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itabaiana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Itabaiana haven't matched Ferroviaria's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Itabaiana a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabaiana Ferroviaria
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.88 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Serie C
Itabaiana vs Ferroviaria
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer da Conceicao Araujo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ferroviaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabaiana 42 / 100
Ferroviaria 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabaiana Ferroviaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabaiana's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Itabaiana stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Ferroviaria has conceded goals in 55% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Itabaiana VS Ferroviaria
0.88 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabaiana

(Home)
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
13 Jul
Itabaiana
1 : 0
Brusque
07 Jul
Amazonas
0 : 2
Itabaiana
27 Jun
Itabaiana
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
20 Jun
Anapolis
2 : 0
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 6

Ferroviaria

(Away)
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Ituano
1 : 3
Ferroviaria
04 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 1
SER Caxias do Sul
27 Jun
Itabaiana
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
21 Jun
Ferroviaria
2 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brusque 15 8 3 4 21:15 27
2 Guarani 15 7 5 3 28:15 26
3 Botafogo PB 15 8 1 6 21:16 25
4 Internacional de Limeira 15 7 4 4 18:17 25
5 Santa Cruz 15 7 3 5 15:11 24
6 Paysandu PA 15 7 2 6 23:21 23
7 Maringa FC 15 6 5 4 28:25 23
8 Ferroviaria 15 6 5 4 15:12 23
9 Ypiranga FC 15 6 3 6 18:19 21
10 SER Caxias do Sul 15 5 6 4 14:12 21
11 Floresta EC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
12 Amazonas 15 6 2 7 15:20 20
13 Figueirense 15 5 5 5 13:18 20
14 Ituano 15 5 4 6 16:17 19
15 Volta Redonda 15 5 3 7 11:19 18
16 Maranhao 15 4 6 5 11:14 18
17 Itabaiana 15 4 5 6 13:18 17
18 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 15 3 6 6 17:17 15
19 Anapolis 15 3 3 9 13:19 12
20 Confianca 15 3 3 9 9:15 12
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)