Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mantova vs Cesena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Zaro G.
Own Goal
49'
Guidi M.
53'
Ciofi A.

AI Match Summary

Mantova in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mantova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mantova
30%
Draws
34%
Cesena
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mantova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mantova lately — more wins on the board than Cesena.
  • Mantova are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Mantova Clean Sheet 16%
Cesena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mantova Cesena
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Serie B
Mantova vs Cesena
3:0
Dec 13, 2025 Serie B
Cesena vs Mantova
3:2
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Mantova vs Cesena
1:2
May 1, 2025 Serie B
Mantova vs Cesena
3:0
Sep 29, 2024 Serie B
Cesena vs Mantova
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mantova Compare

Top Goalscorer Meroni A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancuso L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Cesena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mantova 36 / 100
Cesena 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mantova Cesena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Mantova's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Cesena let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Mantova went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mantova VS Cesena
2.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mantova

(Home)
30 Jul
Mantova
6 : 2
Alcione Milano
26 Jul
Mantova
7 : 0
Ambrosiana
08 May
Frosinone
5 : 0
Mantova
01 May
Mantova
3 : 2
Monza
25 Apr
Sudtirol
0 : 3
Mantova
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Cesena

(Away)
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Fossombrone
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0
Carpi
21 Jul
Cesena
5 : 0
SSD Sampierana
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Carrarese
0 : 0
Cesena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)