Sport Picks
Middlesbrough vs Swansea
England
Championship 2025/2026 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough 
Match Events
10'
10'
Silvera S.
29'
29'
Fulton J.
41'
41'
Franco G.
AI Match Summary
Middlesbrough in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Middlesbrough.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Swansea have won more games recently than Middlesbrough.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Middlesbrough Clean Sheet 19%
Swansea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 6, 2026 Championship
Swansea vs Middlesbrough
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 Championship
Middlesbrough vs Swansea
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Championship
Swansea vs Middlesbrough
1:0
Aug 10, 2024 Championship
Middlesbrough vs Swansea
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 Championship
Middlesbrough vs Swansea
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Middlesbrough Compare
Top Goalscorer Fry D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Swansea Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Middlesbrough 32 / 100
Swansea 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Middlesbrough Swansea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Middlesbrough found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Swansea let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Middlesbrough went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Middlesbrough VS Swansea
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Middlesbrough
(Home) 01 Aug
Middlesbrough
3 : 3 Espanyol
25 Jul
Middlesbrough
1 : 3 Huddersfield
18 Jul
Celtic
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
23 May
Hull City
1 : 0 Middlesbrough
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1 Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Middlesbrough
3 : 3 Espanyol
25 Jul
Middlesbrough
1 : 3 Huddersfield
09 May
Middlesbrough
0 : 0 Southampton
25 Apr
Middlesbrough
5 : 1 Watford
22 Apr
Middlesbrough
1 : 0 Sheffield Wed
Page 1 of 3
Swansea
(Away) 01 Aug
Swansea
1 : 0 Leganes
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Swansea
24 Jul
Swansea
2 : 0 Udinese
21 Jul
Swansea
0 : 2 Bochum
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Swansea
25 Apr
Norwich
1 : 1 Swansea
21 Apr
QPR
1 : 2 Swansea
11 Apr
Leicester
0 : 1 Swansea
03 Apr
Sheffield Utd
3 : 3 Swansea
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)
