Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Narva vs Nomme Utd

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Narva Kalev-Fama staadion, Narva
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Beglarishvili Z.
Assist: Matas K.
46'
Sub
Vassiljev N. In: Morishige Y.
Out: Vassiljev N.
47' Event
Chisala B.
Assist: Matas K.

AI Match Summary

Nomme Utd in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nomme Utd.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Narva
6%
Draws
90%
Nomme Utd
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nomme Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nomme Utd lately — more wins on the board than Narva.
  • Model gives Nomme Utd a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%
Nomme Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Narva Nomme Utd
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 4 2
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 1.88 3
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
1:2
Jun 13, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Nomme Utd
1:2
Apr 11, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
5:1
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Narva vs Nomme Utd
3:4
Sep 21, 2024 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Narva Compare

Top Goalscorer Gero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Nomme Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Beglarishvili Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chisala B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Narva 10 / 100
Nomme Utd 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Narva Nomme Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nomme Utd conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Narva found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (33 games).

Narva went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Narva VS Nomme Utd
1.88 Goals Scored 3
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Narva

(Home)
31 Jul
Nomme Utd
1 : 2
Narva
22 Jul
Narva
1 : 0
Flora Tallinn U21
18 Jul
Narva
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
10 Jul
Harju JK Laagri
3 : 0
Narva
04 Jul
Narva
1 : 3
Levadia
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Nomme Utd

(Away)
31 Jul
Nomme Utd
1 : 2
Narva
23 Jul
Nomme Utd
12 : 0
Raplamaa
17 Jul
Flora
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
11 Jul
Nomme Utd
3 : 2
Kuressaare
03 Jul
Nomme Utd
1 : 3
Kalju
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 20 14 5 1 50:17 47
2 Flora 20 13 0 7 40:21 39
3 Kalju 21 11 5 5 38:17 38
4 Paide Linnameeskond 21 10 5 6 33:28 35
5 Parnu JK Vaprus 21 8 3 10 29:39 27
6 Tammeka Tartu 19 8 2 9 22:31 26
7 Nomme Utd 21 8 1 12 40:48 25
8 Harju JK Laagri 21 8 1 12 30:35 25
9 Kuressaare 21 5 3 13 19:34 18
10 Narva 21 5 1 15 17:48 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)