Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oltrepo vs Sondrio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Marotta F.
31' Event
Neri G. M.
60' Event
Fognini L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B game between Oltrepo and Sondrio finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sondrio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Oltrepo
39%
Draws
31%
Sondrio
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Oltrepo come out ahead of Sondrio on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 20%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oltrepo Sondrio
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs Sondrio
0:3
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Oltrepo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oltrepo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Marotta F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neri G. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oltrepo 31 / 100
Sondrio 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oltrepo Sondrio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OLT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sondrio let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Oltrepo's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Oltrepo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Oltrepo VS Sondrio
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Oltrepo

(Home)
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
26 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 3
Oltrepo
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
11 Apr
Folgore Caratese
1 : 1
Oltrepo
02 Apr
Oltrepo
1 : 0
Real Calepina
Page 1 of 6

Sondrio

(Away)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)