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Persebaya vs PSMS Medan

Indonesia Indonesia

President Cup Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium, Surabaya
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sub
Simanjuntak S. In: Utina R.
Out: Simanjuntak S.
31'
Irianto R.
35'
Sub
Kurniawan D. In: Mabella Y.
Out: Kurniawan D.

AI Match Summary

Persebaya in this President Cup tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Persebaya
6%
Draws
4%
PSMS Medan
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Persebaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Persebaya have won more games recently than PSMS Medan.
  • Win probability leans Persebaya's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Persebaya have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Persebaya, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Persebaya Clean Sheet 68%
PSMS Medan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Persebaya PSMS Medan
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 2.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 President Cup
Persebaya vs PSMS Medan
1:0
Dec 1, 2018 Super League
PSMS Medan vs Persebaya
4:0
Jul 18, 2018 Super League
Persebaya vs PSMS Medan
2:0
Feb 3, 2018 President Cup
Persebaya vs PSMS Medan
3:4
Nov 28, 2017 Championship
PSMS Medan vs Persebaya
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Persebaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

PSMS Medan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Persebaya 95 / 100
PSMS Medan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Persebaya PSMS Medan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Persebaya's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

PSMS Medan has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Persebaya has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Persebaya VS PSMS Medan
2.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Persebaya

(Home)
01 Aug
Persebaya
2 : 1
Port MTI FC
29 Jul
Persebaya
1 : 0
PSMS Medan
26 Jul
Persebaya
1 : 0
Persija Jakarta
19 Jul
Persebaya
2 : 2
PSIS Semarang
23 May
Persebaya
5 : 0
Persik Kediri
Page 1 of 6

PSMS Medan

(Away)
01 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 1
PSMS Medan
29 Jul
Persebaya
1 : 0
PSMS Medan
26 Jul
PSMS Medan
0 : 2
Port MTI FC
02 May
Persiraja Aceh
1 : 1
PSMS Medan
25 Apr
PSMS Medan
1 : 1
Adhyaksa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Persib Bandung 3 3 0 0 3:0 9
2 Arema FC 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
3 Tampines 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 DPMM 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - President Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Persebaya 3 3 0 0 4:1 9
2 Persija Jakarta 3 1 1 1 6:4 4
3 Port MTI FC 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
4 PSMS Medan 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - President Cup (Play Offs)