Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PSV vs Napoli

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Gasiorowski Y.
30'
Veerman J.
31' Event
McTominay S.
Assist: Spinazzola L.

AI Match Summary

The Champions League 2025/2026 game between PSV and Napoli finished 6-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PSV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
PSV
28%
Draws
22%
Napoli
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: PSV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • PSV carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on PSV taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • PSV have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
PSV Clean Sheet 14%
Napoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSV Napoli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 15
Draws 3 7
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 3.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 21, 2025 Champions League
PSV vs Napoli
6:2
Dec 6, 2012 Europa League
Napoli vs PSV
1:3
Oct 4, 2012 Europa League
PSV vs Napoli
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Man D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saibari I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.79
Avg xA / game 1.81

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer McTominay S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSV 48 / 100
Napoli 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSV Napoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSV scored in 97% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

PSV has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Napoli has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

PSV VS Napoli
3.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
88% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSV

(Home)
28 Jul
PSV
3 : 0
Eindhoven FC
25 Jul
PSV
1 : 3
Villarreal
18 Jul
PSV
7 : 3
Royale Union SG
11 Jul
PSV
3 : 2
Rakow Czestochowa
04 Jul
PSV
1 : 1
Antwerp
Page 1 of 6

Napoli

(Away)
26 Jul
Napoli
2 : 0
Carrarese
22 Jul
Napoli
1 : 3
Arezzo
24 May
Napoli
1 : 0
Udinese
17 May
Pisa
0 : 3
Napoli
11 May
Napoli
2 : 3
Bologna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal880023:424
2Bayern Munich870122:821
3Liverpool860220:818
4Tottenham852117:717
5Barcelona851222:1416
6Chelsea851217:1016
7Sporting CP851217:1116
8Manchester City851215:916
9Real Madrid850321:1215
10Inter850315:715
11PSG842221:1114
12Newcastle Utd842217:714
13Juventus834114:1013
14Atl. Madrid841317:1513
15Atalanta841310:1013
16Bayer Leverkusen833213:1412
17Dortmund832319:1711
18Olympiacos Piraeus832310:1411
19Club Brugge831415:1710
20Galatasaray83149:1110
21Monaco82428:1410
22Qarabag Agdam831413:2110
23Bodo/Glimt823314:159
24Benfica830510:129
25Marseille830511:149
26Pafos82338:119
27Royale Union SG83058:179
28PSV822416:168
29Ath Bilbao82249:148
30Napoli82249:158
31FC Copenhagen822412:218
32Ajax82068:216
33Eintracht Frankfurt811610:214
34Slavia Prague80355:193
35Villarreal80175:181
36Kairat Almaty80177:221
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)