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SD Raiders vs APIA Leichhardt

Australia Australia

NPL NSW Ernie Smith Reserve, Sydney
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gonzalez O.
24' Event
Ragg C.
45' Event
Eremugo R.

AI Match Summary

The NPL NSW game between SD Raiders and APIA Leichhardt finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward APIA Leichhardt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
SD Raiders
22%
Draws
60%
APIA Leichhardt
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: APIA Leichhardt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and APIA Leichhardt come out ahead of SD Raiders on wins alone.
  • Model gives APIA Leichhardt a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL NSW form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
SD Raiders Clean Sheet 10%
APIA Leichhardt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Raiders APIA Leichhardt
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 23
Draws 6 3
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.25 2.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 NPL NSW
SD Raiders vs APIA Leichhardt
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Raiders Compare

Top Goalscorer Ragg C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eremugo R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

APIA Leichhardt Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Stewart J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Raiders 18 / 100
APIA Leichhardt 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Raiders APIA Leichhardt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick API Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Raiders's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

APIA Leichhardt's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

SD Raiders went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SD Raiders VS APIA Leichhardt
1.25 Goals Scored 2.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Raiders

(Home)
01 Aug
St George Saints
2 : 3
SD Raiders
25 Jul
SD Raiders
2 : 1
Marconi Stallions
18 Jul
Wollongong
2 : 3
SD Raiders
14 Jul
Rochedale
1 : 2
SD Raiders
11 Jul
SD Raiders
1 : 3
Blacktown City
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APIA Leichhardt

(Away)
02 Aug
Sydney Olympic
1 : 3
APIA Leichhardt
25 Jul
APIA Leichhardt
4 : 1
UNSW
18 Jul
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
3 : 5
APIA Leichhardt
14 Jul
APIA Leichhardt
2 : 1
Peninsula
11 Jul
APIA Leichhardt
2 : 1
Sydney FC U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APIA Leichhardt 26 19 3 4 59:32 60
2 Marconi Stallions 26 17 4 5 46:18 55
3 Sydney Utd 26 17 3 6 37:18 54
4 Sutherland Sharks 26 13 3 10 42:33 42
5 Rockdale Ilinden 26 12 4 10 44:37 40
6 Sydney FC U23 26 10 6 10 34:38 36
7 Western Sydney Wanderers U21 26 10 5 11 51:40 35
8 Manly Utd 26 9 8 9 30:30 35
9 SD Raiders 26 10 5 11 38:44 35
10 Wollongong 26 9 5 12 29:36 32
11 Blacktown City 26 8 7 11 39:41 31
12 UNSW 26 9 4 13 37:42 31
13 NWS Spirit 26 9 4 13 28:36 31
14 St. George City 26 8 7 11 24:40 31
15 St George Saints 26 6 2 18 25:48 20
16 Sydney Olympic 26 5 4 17 27:57 19
Promotion - NPL NSW (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL NSW (Play Offs)
Relegation - NPL NSW (Relegation)
Relegation - NSW League One 2027 (Main)