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SP Villafranca vs AD Llerenense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Millan R. G.
43'
Munoz A.
80' Event
Minon J.

AI Match Summary

SP Villafranca in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored SP Villafranca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
SP Villafranca
6%
Draws
4%
AD Llerenense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: SP Villafranca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • SP Villafranca have won more games recently than AD Llerenense.
  • Win probability leans SP Villafranca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 68%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SP Villafranca AD Llerenense
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs AD Llerenense
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs SP Villafranca
0:1
Apr 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs AD Llerenense
1:4
Dec 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs SP Villafranca
2:1
Mar 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs SP Villafranca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Minon J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

AD Llerenense Compare

Top Goalscorer Millan R. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SP Villafranca 95 / 100
AD Llerenense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SP Villafranca AD Llerenense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SP Villafranca found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

AD Llerenense has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

SP Villafranca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SP Villafranca VS AD Llerenense
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SP Villafranca

(Home)
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4
SP Villafranca
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1
Jerez CF
26 Apr
SP Villafranca
1 : 0
Don Benito
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
12 Apr
SP Villafranca
0 : 2
CD Azuaga
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AD Llerenense

(Away)
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1
AD Llerenense
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1
Jaraiz
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2
Villanovense
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)